Gulf News
By Abdullah Al Shayji
With the unfolding Yemen crisis, the fall in oil prices and Iran’s overt threats, 2015 could outpace both 2013 and 2014 in terms of regional turbulence.
In my last column in Gulf News, I argued that “ … 2013 was by and large a depressing year because the US abdicated its leadership role and became inward looking, wavering and indifferent over many issues. Mayhem, chaos and indecisiveness marked 2013 as it gave way to 2014. Actually, the US role — or lack thereof — made things worse in our region. [But] 2014 topped 2013, where the Arab League secretary-general Nabil Al Arabi described it as ‘the worst year for the Arab World’.”
I argued that in 2014 the Arab centre seemed to break at the seams. I concluded by saying, “As the turbulent 2014 gives way to 2015, there is little confidence or hope that these vexing crises would ease or go away in a year where we expect, unfortunately, more of the same with more bruises and scars on all of us.”
Just in the first month of 2015, things have started to unravel — the death of King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz, the toppling of the regime and the resignation of President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi and his cabinet in Yemen, the spike in terrorist activities in Sinai to coincide with the fourth anniversary of January 25 Revolution, the continuing fall in oil prices, and the overt threats and warnings from the “moderate” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who said that those who “plotted” for lower oil prices will suffer if Iran suffers!
He surprised everyone by singling out Saudi Arabia and Kuwait for retaliation. This threat sowed much distrust and sabotaged any confidence building measures between the two sides of the Arabian Gulf.
Israel added fuel to the fire by launching a raid against Hezbollah operatives in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, killing six of them and one Iranian Revolutionary Guard general who were in there on a mission. Iran lashed out against Israel, with the Revolutionary Guards threatening retaliation to avenge the death of their general.
Hezbollah exacted their own revenge by attacking an Israeli military convoy in the Israeli-occupied Sheba’a Farms area, killing two Israeli soldiers. But both sides, the Israelis and Hezbollah, which is bogged down in the Syrian conflict, do not want to engage in a new war.
Both sides backed down, and that round ended there. However, Hezbollah general secretary Hassan Nassrallah warned the Israelis in a bombastic speech last week, saying: “Don’t test us! We don’t want war, but we are not afraid of it and we must distinguish between the two, and the Israelis must also understand this very well.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is in a fix, and trailing in the parliamentary election due in March, argued: “We are under continued assaults orchestrated by Iran, let there be no doubt about it. Iran is trying to uproot us, they won’t succeed.”
Clearly, 2015 is shaping up to be a year that could outpace and outperform both 2013, and 2014 put together, in terms of turmoil in the region.
The Al Houthis in Yemen, supported and funded by Iran, launched a major coup by taking over parts of Yemen, forcing the resignation of the president, and the cabinet and making Iran the “lord of the seas”, as one Iranian commentator boasted, controlling the Straits of Hormuz and the Straits of Bab Al Mandab on the Red Sea — thus controlling the navigation routes of energy to Asia, Europe and America.
Coincidently, on the same day when Hadi resigned, King Abdullah passed away.
When he assumed power in 2005, there was speculation that because of King Abdullah’s conservative background and pan-Arab beliefs, he would be a conservative, anti-reform monarch. He proved to be anything but. He instituted reforms, held municipal elections, admitted 30 women into the Shoura Council (20 per cent) and promised women the right to vote and run for office in the municipal elections to be held this year.
His frank talk and straight shooting made him the leader of the Sunni Muslim world. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is the leader of the front facing Iran in a Cold War that stretches from Iraq to Lebanon, and from Syria to Yemen. By becoming the de facto rulers of Yemen, the Al Houthis have enabled Iran to complete its encirclement of the GCC states.
King Abdullah left a lasting legacy — as the leader who played a role in turning Saudi Arabia into a regional and international powerhouse. Saudi Arabia is the number one oil exporter and the major swing oil-producing country. It is also the only Arab country in the G20. Under King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia presented the most serious Arab initiative to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, which was adopted by the Arab League and all Arab countries at the Arab Summit in Beirut in 2002.
The world leaders who came to attend the funeral or pay condolences — US President Barack Obama even cut short his trip to India to visit Saudi Arabia with his wife, and high level dignitaries — spoke highly of King Abdullah, who clashed with the Americans over Iraq, Syria, Egypt and the Arab Spring.
Nevertheless, Obama described King Abdullah saying, “As a leader, he was always candid and had the courage of his convictions. One of those convictions was his steadfast and passionate belief in the importance of the US-Saudi relationship as a force for stability and security in the Middle East and beyond.”
This is the legacy of King Abdullah, who passed away at a critical juncture and acute time for Saudi Arabia and the region.
The bold royal decrees issued by King Salman Bin Abdul Aziz, restructuring his cabinet and putting the Saudi house in order, point to continuity and steadfastness in Saudi policy when it comes to dealing with a host of challenges and crises — with a few adjustments and changes.
Professor Abdullah Al Shayji is the former chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University. He is currently a Visiting Scholar at the Middle East Centre in George Washington University. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/@docshayji
