Arab Spring’s unintended consequences
By ABEER MOHAMMED / The Institute for War & Peace Reporting
BAGHDAD — One year after the start of uprisings collectively known as the Arab Spring, there are troubling signs that the movements that once promised to bring democracy to the region are instead increasing the level of polarization and sectarianism in the Arab world.
Political parties closely aligned with specific sects – both Sunni and Shia – have been steadily gaining in strength and influence all across the region.
Sunni Islamist parties in both Tunis and Egypt proved to be the top vote getters in recent elections. Recent demonstrations in Morocco not only led to reforms but also resulted in greater power for Sunni Islamists there. Similar results are expected as new governments form in Libya and Yemen.
Even the low-key protests that erupt from time to time in Jordan have been led by Islamist groups, mainly Sunni.
Religion and politics are closely intertwined for both Sunnis and Shias. Both see their faith as serving as the path to the right way of life. And for both sects, politics is merely a means of enacting their respective religious ideals.
But problems arise because the differences between the two Islamic sects are deep and fundamental and neither sect is particularly tolerant of the other.
For example, the ritual public display of grief among Shia Muslims for the death of Imam Hussein, which includes weeping and self-flagellation, is considered “haram,” or forbidden, by Sunnis. Were a Sunni government to ban or denigrate such practices, it could increase sectarian tensions.
Recent events indicate that states in the region will be governed by either Shias or Sunnis, depending on which sect makes up the majority of each country’s population. And since no country in the region is exclusively Sunni or Shia, tensions fostered by centuries-old grievances are sure to ensue.
In Iraq, the nation teetered on the brink of civil war as disputes between Shias and Sunnis, fueled in large measure by al-Qaida, lasted for several years. And with the Sunni vice president facing criminal charges brought by the Shia majority, there’s no sign that the sectarian dispute is about to be resolved.
Meanwhile, in neighboring Syria, the current uprising has been fueled in part by the Sunni majority which feels unfairly treated under the current rule of the Allawi minority. In Bahrain, it’s the Shia majority that chafes under Sunni rulers.
A Sunni Islamist satellite channel recently announced a “jihad” against Shias throughout the region, while radical Shias prophesize that they will one day inherit all Muslim lands, including those now under Sunni control. Such ideological positions only increase the chances of conflict if radicals from either side gain power.
Democracy was supposed to ease sectarian tensions rather than exacerbate them. But in the fragile systems we are seeing emerge in the region, there is a danger that the Arab Spring will lead instead to sectarian violence.
ABOUT THE WRITER
Abeer Mohammed is a reporter in Iraq who writes for The Institute for War & Peace Reporting, a nonprofit organization that trains journalists in areas of conflict. Readers may write to the author at the Institute for War & Peace Reporting, 48 Grays Inn Road, London WC1X 8LT, U.K.; Web site: www.iwpr.net. For information about IWPR’s funding, please go to http://www.iwpr.net/index.pl?top-supporters.html.
This essay is available to McClatchy-Tribune News Service subscribers. McClatchy-Tribune did not subsidize the writing of this column; the opinions are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of McClatchy-Tribune or its editors.
2012, The Institute for War & Peace Reporting
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