By Stephen Rose
octobre 12, 2011 8:36 AM EDT
Following are the details of world wheat supply and demand from the U.S. Department of Agriculture:
================================================================================
---2012 Forecast--- 2012 2011
Oct. Sept. MOM% 2011 2010 YOY% YOY%
================================================================================
-------------------------World------------------------
Ending stocks 202.37 194.59 4.0% 195.60 200.75 3.5% -2.6%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 195.60 193.34 1.2% 200.75 167.10 -2.6% 20.1%
Production 681.20 678.12 0.5% 648.16 684.40 5.1% -5.3%
Imports 132.07 129.75 1.8% 129.88 133.58 1.7% -2.8%
Domestic use 674.43 676.86 -0.4% 653.30 650.75 3.2% 0.4%
Domestic feed 125.52 130.10 -3.5% 112.62 115.69 11.5% -2.7%
Exports 135.30 131.89 2.6% 131.07 135.80 3.2% -3.5%
-------------------------U.S.-------------------------
Ending stocks 22.78 20.71 10.0% 23.47 26.55 -2.9% -11.6%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
================================================================================
---2012 Forecast--- 2012 2011
Oct. Sept. MOM% 2011 2010 YOY% YOY%
================================================================================
-------------------------U.S.-------------------------
Beginning stocks 23.47 23.43 0.2% 26.55 17.87 -11.6% 48.6%
Production 54.65 56.51 -3.3% 60.06 60.37 -9.0% -0.5%
Imports 3.27 2.99 9.4% 2.64 3.23 23.9% -18.3%
Domestic use 32.07 34.33 -6.6% 30.71 30.98 4.4% -0.9%
Domestic feed 4.35 6.53 -33.4% 3.59 4.08 21.2% -12.0%
Exports 26.54 27.90 -4.9% 35.08 23.93 -24.3% 46.6%
--------------------Total Foreign--------------------
Ending stocks 179.58 173.89 3.3% 172.14 174.19 4.3% -1.2%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 172.14 169.91 1.3% 174.19 149.23 -1.2% 16.7%
Production 626.55 621.60 0.8% 588.10 624.03 6.5% -5.8%
Imports 128.81 126.76 1.6% 127.24 130.35 1.2% -2.4%
Domestic use 642.37 642.53 0.0% 622.59 619.77 3.2% 0.5%
Domestic feed 121.17 123.57 -1.9% 109.03 111.61 11.1% -2.3%
Exports 108.76 103.99 4.6% 96.00 111.87 13.3% -14.2%
================================================================================
---2012 Forecast--- 2012 2011
Oct. Sept. MOM% 2011 2010 YOY% YOY%
================================================================================
-------------------Major Exporters-------------------
Ending stocks 27.40 24.17 13.4% 27.69 31.03 -1.0% -10.8%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 27.69 24.51 13.0% 31.03 30.16 -10.8% 2.9%
Production 200.03 198.29 0.9% 199.78 198.59 0.1% 0.6%
Imports 8.01 8.01 0.0% 5.27 6.05 52.0% -12.9%
Domestic use 147.83 149.13 -0.9% 141.74 142.68 4.3% -0.7%
Domestic feed 63.73 65.13 -2.1% 58.41 61.65 9.1% -5.3%
Exports 60.50 57.50 5.2% 66.65 61.08 -9.2% 9.1%
----------------------Argentina----------------------
Ending stocks 1.57 1.57 0.0% 1.49 1.36 5.4% 9.6%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 1.49 1.49 0.0% 1.36 1.29 9.6% 5.4%
Production 13.50 13.50 0.0% 15.00 11.00 -10.0% 36.4%
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.0% 0.01 0.00 0.0% n/a
Domestic use 5.93 5.93 0.0% 5.88 5.83 0.9% 0.9%
Domestic feed 0.03 0.03 0.0% 0.03 0.03 0.0% 0.0%
================================================================================
---2012 Forecast--- 2012 2011
Oct. Sept. MOM% 2011 2010 YOY% YOY%
================================================================================
----------------------Argentina----------------------
Exports 7.50 7.50 0.0% 9.00 5.10 -16.7% 76.5%
----------------------Australia----------------------
Ending stocks 7.88 4.26 85.0% 7.38 5.68 6.8% 29.9%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 7.38 4.16 77.4% 5.68 3.39 29.9% 67.6%
Production 26.00 25.00 4.0% 26.00 21.92 0.0% 18.6%
Imports 0.10 0.10 0.0% 0.12 0.12 -16.7% 0.0%
Domestic use 6.60 8.00 -17.5% 6.13 4.93 7.7% 24.3%
Domestic feed 3.50 4.90 -28.6% 3.00 1.90 16.7% 57.9%
Exports 19.00 17.00 11.8% 18.30 14.83 3.8% 23.4%
------------------------Canada-----------------------
Ending stocks 4.99 5.89 -15.3% 7.19 7.83 -30.6% -8.2%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 7.19 7.19 0.0% 7.83 6.55 -8.2% 19.5%
Production 24.20 24.00 0.8% 23.17 26.85 4.4% -13.7%
Imports 0.40 0.40 0.0% 0.43 0.40 -7.0% 7.5%
================================================================================
---2012 Forecast--- 2012 2011
Oct. Sept. MOM% 2011 2010 YOY% YOY%
================================================================================
------------------------Canada-----------------------
Domestic use 8.80 8.70 1.1% 7.74 6.93 13.7% 11.7%
Domestic feed 3.70 3.70 0.0% 2.89 2.22 28.0% 30.2%
Exports 18.00 17.00 5.9% 16.50 19.04 9.1% -13.3%
------------------------EU-27------------------------
Ending stocks 12.96 12.45 4.1% 11.63 16.16 11.4% -28.0%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 11.63 11.67 -0.3% 16.16 18.94 -28.0% -14.7%
Production 136.33 135.79 0.4% 135.61 138.82 0.5% -2.3%
Imports 7.50 7.50 0.0% 4.71 5.52 59.2% -14.7%
Domestic use 126.50 126.50 0.0% 122.00 125.00 3.7% -2.4%
Domestic feed 56.50 56.50 0.0% 52.50 57.50 7.6% -8.7%
Exports 16.00 16.00 0.0% 22.85 22.12 -30.0% 3.3%
-------------------Major Importers-------------------
Ending stocks 94.19 93.80 0.4% 90.75 85.18 3.8% 6.5%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 90.75 91.03 -0.3% 85.18 70.90 6.5% 20.1%
================================================================================
---2012 Forecast--- 2012 2011
Oct. Sept. MOM% 2011 2010 YOY% YOY%
================================================================================
-------------------Major Importers-------------------
Production 187.03 187.03 0.0% 184.94 185.55 1.1% -0.3%
Imports 68.10 66.75 2.0% 70.29 70.89 -3.1% -0.8%
Domestic use 246.95 245.95 0.4% 241.94 236.91 2.1% 2.1%
Domestic feed 25.70 25.50 0.8% 21.61 18.19 18.9% 18.8%
Exports 4.73 5.06 -6.5% 7.71 5.25 -38.7% 46.9%
------------------------Brazil-----------------------
Ending stocks 1.22 1.22 0.0% 0.82 1.52 48.8% -46.1%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 0.82 0.82 0.0% 1.52 1.53 -46.1% -0.7%
Production 5.00 5.00 0.0% 5.90 5.03 -15.3% 17.3%
Imports 6.70 6.70 0.0% 6.70 7.13 0.0% -6.0%
Domestic use 10.80 10.80 0.0% 10.80 11.00 0.0% -1.8%
Domestic feed 0.10 0.10 0.0% 0.20 0.40 -50.0% -50.0%
Exports 0.50 0.50 0.0% 2.50 1.16 -80.0% 115.5%
------------------------China------------------------
Ending stocks 64.09 64.09 0.0% 60.09 54.43 6.7% 10.4%
================================================================================
---2012 Forecast--- 2012 2011
Oct. Sept. MOM% 2011 2010 YOY% YOY%
================================================================================
------------------------China------------------------
Beginning stocks 60.09 60.09 0.0% 54.43 45.80 10.4% 18.8%
Production 117.00 117.00 0.0% 115.18 115.12 1.6% 0.1%
Imports 1.00 1.00 0.0% 0.93 1.39 7.5% -33.1%
Domestic use 113.00 113.00 0.0% 109.50 107.00 3.2% 2.3%
Domestic feed 17.00 17.00 0.0% 13.00 10.00 30.8% 30.0%
Exports 1.00 1.00 0.0% 0.94 0.89 6.4% 5.6%
-----------------------Mideast-----------------------
Ending stocks 8.31 8.34 -0.4% 9.51 9.79 -12.6% -2.9%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 9.51 9.54 -0.3% 9.79 7.31 -2.9% 33.9%
Production 17.29 17.29 0.0% 19.58 16.32 -11.7% 20.0%
Imports 13.60 13.75 -1.1% 13.28 18.72 2.4% -29.1%
Domestic use 31.58 31.53 0.2% 31.98 31.67 -1.3% 1.0%
Domestic feed 2.10 2.10 0.0% 1.90 1.70 10.5% 11.8%
Exports 0.51 0.71 -28.2% 1.16 0.88 -56.0% 31.8%
================================================================================
---2012 Forecast--- 2012 2011
Oct. Sept. MOM% 2011 2010 YOY% YOY%
================================================================================
---------------------North Africa--------------------
Ending stocks 11.73 11.13 5.4% 11.63 11.15 0.9% 4.3%
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Beginning stocks 11.63 11.58 0.4% 11.15 9.22 4.3% 20.9%
Production 19.33 19.33 0.0% 16.13 20.26 19.8% -20.4%
Imports 22.30 21.00 6.2% 24.13 21.40 -7.6% 12.8%
Domestic use 41.25 40.50 1.9% 39.43 39.35 4.6% 0.2%
Domestic feed 3.10 3.10 0.0% 2.38 2.85 30.3% -16.5%
Exports 0.28 0.28 0.0% 0.35 0.38 -20.0% -7.9%
-----------------------Pakistan----------------------
Ending stocks 3.31 3.21 3.1% 3.31 3.56 0.0% -7.0%
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Beginning stocks 3.31 3.41 -2.9% 3.56 2.69 -7.0% 32.3%
Production 24.00 24.00 0.0% 23.90 24.00 0.4% -0.4%
Imports 0.20 0.20 0.0% 0.15 0.17 33.3% -11.8%
Domestic use 23.40 23.40 0.0% 23.20 23.00 0.9% 0.9%
Domestic feed 0.40 0.40 0.0% 0.40 0.40 0.0% 0.0%
================================================================================
---2012 Forecast--- 2012 2011
Oct. Sept. MOM% 2011 2010 YOY% YOY%
================================================================================
-----------------------Pakistan----------------------
Exports 0.80 1.00 -20.0% 1.10 0.30 -27.3% 266.7%
--------------------Southeast Asia-------------------
Ending stocks 3.83 3.79 1.1% 3.80 2.92 0.8% 30.1%
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Beginning stocks 3.80 3.78 0.5% 2.92 2.71 30.1% 7.7%
Imports 14.90 14.70 1.4% 15.76 13.39 -5.5% 17.7%
Domestic use 14.33 14.13 1.4% 14.34 12.69 -0.1% 13.0%
Domestic feed 2.45 2.25 8.9% 2.84 2.04 -13.7% 39.2%
Exports 0.55 0.57 -3.5% 0.55 0.50 0.0% 10.0%
------------------------India------------------------
Ending stocks 15.59 16.19 -3.7% 15.36 16.12 1.5% -4.7%
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Beginning stocks 15.36 15.36 0.0% 16.12 13.43 -4.7% 20.0%
Production 85.93 85.93 0.0% 80.80 80.68 6.3% 0.1%
Imports 0.00 0.00#DIV/0! 0.30 0.22 -100.0% 36.4%
Domestic use 84.70 84.70 0.0% 81.81 78.15 3.5% 4.7%
================================================================================
---2012 Forecast--- 2012 2011
Oct. Sept. MOM% 2011 2010 YOY% YOY%
================================================================================
------------------------India------------------------
Domestic feed 0.20 0.20 0.0% 0.15 0.10 33.3% 50.0%
Exports 1.00 0.40 150.0% 0.05 0.06 1900.0% -16.7%
----------------Former Soviet Union-12---------------
Ending stocks 27.16 25.06 8.4% 23.47 26.63 15.7% -11.9%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 23.47 24.02 -2.3% 26.63 22.15 -11.9% 20.2%
Production 110.45 107.45 2.8% 80.97 113.93 36.4% -28.9%
Imports 5.80 5.85 -0.9% 5.47 5.42 6.0% 0.9%
Domestic use 77.85 79.05 -1.5% 75.48 78.20 3.1% -3.5%
Domestic feed 25.63 26.83 -4.5% 23.68 25.98 8.2% -8.9%
Exports 34.71 33.21 4.5% 14.13 36.66 145.6% -61.5%
------------------------Russia-----------------------
Ending stocks 13.14 13.15 -0.1% 13.54 14.52 -3.0% -6.7%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 13.54 13.55 -0.1% 14.52 10.74 -6.7% 35.2%
Production 56.00 56.00 0.0% 41.51 61.77 34.9% -32.8%
================================================================================
---2012 Forecast--- 2012 2011
Oct. Sept. MOM% 2011 2010 YOY% YOY%
================================================================================
------------------------Russia-----------------------
Imports 0.20 0.20 0.0% 0.09 0.16 122.2% -43.8%
Domestic use 38.60 40.60 -4.9% 38.60 39.60 0.0% -2.5%
Domestic feed 16.00 18.00 -11.1% 16.00 16.80 0.0% -4.8%
Exports 18.00 16.00 12.5% 3.98 18.56 352.3% -78.6%
----------------------Kazakhstan---------------------
Ending stocks 4.91 3.13 56.9% 2.28 4.80 115.4% -52.5%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Beginning stocks 2.28 2.30 -0.9% 4.80 3.36 -52.5% 42.9%
Production 19.00 16.00 18.8% 9.70 17.05 95.9% -43.1%
Imports 0.03 0.03 0.0% 0.01 0.06 200.0% -83.3%
Domestic use 7.90 7.70 2.6% 6.70 7.80 17.9% -14.1%
Domestic feed 3.00 2.80 7.1% 2.00 2.90 50.0% -31.0%
Exports 8.50 7.50 13.3% 5.52 7.87 54.0% -29.9%
-----------------------Ukraine-----------------------
Ending stocks 4.89 4.40 11.1% 3.34 2.36 46.4% 41.5%
================================================================================
---2012 Forecast--- 2012 2011
Oct. Sept. MOM% 2011 2010 YOY% YOY%
================================================================================
-----------------------Ukraine-----------------------
Beginning stocks 3.34 3.35 -0.3% 2.36 3.10 41.5% -23.9%
Production 22.00 22.00 0.0% 16.84 20.87 30.6% -19.3%
Imports 0.05 0.05 0.0% 0.04 0.03 25.0% 33.3%
Domestic use 12.50 12.00 4.2% 11.60 12.30 7.8% -5.7%
Domestic feed 3.70 3.20 15.6% 2.80 3.30 32.1% -15.2%
Exports 8.00 9.00 -11.1% 4.30 9.34 86.0% -54.0%
================================================================================
NOTE: Figures are for local marketing years. Mideast includes
Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen,
United Arab Emirates and Oman. North Africa includes Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. Southeast Asia includes
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
Figures are in millions of metric tons.
To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Rose in Washington at srose31@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net
