USDA WASDE
WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 15 million bushels higher this month with a small increase in seed use more than offset by lower expected feed and residual disappearance. Seed use for 2012/13 is raised slightly based on producer planting intentions for 2013/14 as reported in the March 28 Prospective Plantings.
Feed and residual use for 2012/13 is projected 15 million bushels lower reflecting lower-than-expected disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated by the March 1 stocks. Feed and residual use is projected lower for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Hard Red Spring wheat, but declines are partly offset by higher expected feed and residual use for Soft Red Winter and White wheat.
All-wheat imports are unchanged, but a small increase in HRW wheat is offset by a decline in durum. The projected range for the wheat season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both ends to $7.70 to $7.90 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 2.9 million tons on higher world beginning stocks with the biggest increases for EU-27, Morocco, and Mexico. The increased stocks primarily reflect balance sheet revisions that lower 2011/12 domestic wheat use for several countries this month.
Global 2012/13 production is nearly unchanged, but notable changes are made for some countries. Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Morocco with an upward yield revision.
EU-27 production is decreased 0.2 million tons with lower reported output for the United Kingdom. Saudi Arabia production is lowered 0.2 million tons with lower area. Smaller reductions are made for Chile and Tunisia.
Global wheat trade is projected higher for 2012/13 with exports raised 2.6 million tons. Exports are increased 1.0 million tons each for Australia and EU-27. Exports are also raised for the FSU-12 with Ukraine up 0.5 million tons and Russia up 0.2 million tons. Import changes are made for a number of countries. The biggest increases are for Iran, Algeria, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and the United Arab Emirates. The biggest declines are for Morocco, Russia, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam.
World wheat feed and residual use is lowered 5.2 million tons with much of the decline resulting from a 3.0-million-ton reduction for China. Wheat feed use is also lowered 1.0 million tons for EU-27 with smaller reductions made for Russia, Vietnam, and Ukraine.
World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 4.0 million tons higher with China stocks raised 3.0 million. Increases for North Africa, EU-27, Iran, and the United States more than offset a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia and smaller reductions for FSU-12 and Saudi Arabia.
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