By Trudy Rubin
The events of 2011 — featuring Arab upheavals that no one expected — should serve as a warning against New Year’s predictions.
But given our unsettled times, which offer unending grist for a foreign affairs columnist, I can certainly list the stories I’ll be watching in 2012.
The struggle for human dignity, in the Mideast and elsewhere. The outcome of the Arab revolts remains unknown, with bloodshed ongoing and few signs that democracy is budding. Yet underlying the 2011 protests was a deep yearning for dignity by populations that had previously accepted authoritarian rule.
Young Arabs had been made aware by the forces of globalization of their right to better treatment; they were no longer willing to be treated like cattle. This new consciousness has penetrated not just less-developed countries such as Egypt or Syria, but also wealthier countries such as Russia, where recent, amazing demonstrations took place against the rule of pseudo-tsar Vladimir Putin.
Even if mass protests don’t produce better governance at first, this new awareness can’t be reversed. I want to watch where it leads.
Which raises the question: Whither Islamism? “Moderate” Islamists already have topped lists in elections in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco. They are poised to take power in Libya and would do well in Syrian elections if the Assad government fell.
So a big story to watch in 2012 is whether “moderate” Islamists keep their pledges
