The Morocco model

One thing we can be sure of is that the Arab world will never be the same. The wave of pro-democracy protests witnessed over the year has fundamentally changed the political dynamics of the region. From Morocco to Bahrain, from Syria to Libya, the Arab street is no longer willing to put up with the old social contract that has governed it for at least half a century. The push for representative demo-cracy is irreversible and it will be unwise to try and impede it.

Even Arab monarchies that have survived the prospect of regime change cannot rest assured. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait might have successfully deployed the carrot and stick approach to put a lid on the voices of dissent. But there is no telling for how long. Ensuring economic prosperity in exchange for unquestioning loyalty to autocratic governments is a model that is no longer tenable. Material benefits alone cannot quench the genuine aspiration for accountability and freedom. 

However, two emerging trends demand attention. There is a growing narrative that paints the Arab Spring in sectarian Shia-Sunni colours. While circumstances in Syria and Bahrain may justify this to a certain degree, care must be taken not to overplay the sectarian argument.

The latter is also linked to fears of Iran trying to fish in troubled waters. There is a school of thought that believes the Arab Spring is nothing but an Iranian conspiracy. Given that the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council – all monarchies – have been citing the Iranian threat to enhance security and defence cooperation, this could be a red herring to stall political reforms. It is imperative that those championing Arab political liberty keep an eye out for such diversionary tactics.

The second trend that has western governments worried is the rise of political Islam. In October, the Islamist Ennahda movement secured victory in Tunisia’s first free and fair polls in decades. Last month, Morocco followed suit by giving a handsome mandate to the moderate Islamists of the Justice and Deve-lopment Party (PJD). In Egypt, the first of three-phased polls has seen the Muslim Brotherhood and the hardline Salafi Nour Party gain the upper hand.

This has not only put a question mark on the secular future of these Arab states but also given rise to security concerns in the context of global jihadi terrorism. In Libya, for example, some of those affiliated with the National Transition Council are known to have links with al-Qaida. The Salafis in Egypt haven’t minced words about their desire to impose the sharia. In Tunisia, home to one of the most progressive legislations on women’s rights in the Arab world, there are fears that the moderate face of the Ennahda could eventually make way for a more fundamentalist regime.

In such a scenario, it is easy to feel nostalgic about dictatorships that imposed secularism at gunpoint. But that would be a mistake. In fact, it is because of Arab dictators’ heavy-handed treatment of Islamic groups that the latter were able to organise themselves into an anti-autocratic force.

Nor is there reason to believe that political Islam can’t be congruent with a modern secular democracy. In this regard, Morocco serves as a role model. The reform process in Morocco is at least a decade old. In response to the pro-democracy upsurge earlier this year, Morocco’s King Mohammed VI ordered sweeping constitutional reforms – adopted through a nationwide referendum – that devolved significant powers to the elected parliament. Barring defence and religion, the new Moroccan government is to have inviolable policy-making powers.

As it turned out, the Islamist PJD emerged as the single largest party in the November elections to Morocco’s parliament. In accordance with the new Constitution, PJD general secretary Abdelilah Benkirane has been appointed prime minister by the king. Here too there were fears that victory for political Islam would doom Morocco’s liberal image, long known for attracting western tourists to its open beaches, renowned cuisine and Moroccan wine. But for all its Islamic pedigree, the PJD’s campaign wasn’t remotely concerned with sharia. It focussed on the youth, organised hip-hop concerts to reach out to voters, promised to fight endemic corruption and, most importantly, vowed to boost the economy and create jobs to tackle growing unemployment.

Considering the fact that 45% of Morocco’s 13.5 million eligible voters came out to exercise their franchise, it would be safe to say that it wasn’t the Islamists alone who were plumping for the PJD. Besides, in the absence of an outright majority, the PJD would be forced to govern in a coalition possibly comprising left-leaning centrist parties. This would further ensure that the PJD’s governance programme remains on the secular course.

Morocco’s managed transition to a democratic system provides several lessons. First, King Mohammed VI has shown it is possible for autocrats to devolve political power to the people without compromising on stabi-lity. Second, political Islam can exist within a secular democratic system. And third, it is jobs, corruption and accountability that are driving pro-democracy sentiments in the Arab word.

There are indeed various shades of political Islam. But as shown by Morocco, there is nothing to fear in moderate Islam that represents the masses of the Arab world and respects secularism, human rights and gender equality. It is time to choose our Islamists carefully.