USAK (the International Strategic Research Foundation) and the leading American thinktank, the RAND Corporation, held a very important joint workshop in Istanbul on 24 April on Democracies Being Born out of the Ashes of Authoritarian Regimes: The Path The Arab Countries Will follow during their Transition.
The analysis contained in the presentations suggested that, in the wake of the revolutions, serious self-criticism together with intellectual and political activity is under way in the societies of the Arab world and among its intellectuals. It also emerged that in some cases over the last three years, individual countries in the Arab Spring have not also followed a very favourable course and this situation causes anxiety for the region as a whole.
Too many topics were covered during the workshop to be squeezed into this column so in this article, we will simply examine the cases of Tunisia and Egypt.
It is apparent that Tunisia is in the best position of any of the countries which experienced revolution. Although many high provocative incidents have happened in the country since the start of the revolution until now, political players coming from different parts of the spectrum have managed to succeed in finding a common line in the face of these troubles. One of the most important instances of this came with the murder of the opposition leader, Chokri Belaïd. This event was an important test for the new process in Tunisia but it was overcome without giving any scope for major provocations. Because change in Tunisia has been achieved as a result of a long ground-swell. Rashid al-Ghannushi, who is the most influential politician in the country, and his Ennahda Movement had been through a process of serious self-criticism in the1990s when they were suffering repression at the hands of the Bin Ali administration. As a result they have grasped the importance of the democratic system very fully.
Delicate Balances in Egypt
Unlike Tunisia, Egypt is the post-revolution country which is the scène of the most heated debates. At the start it was supposed that a very broad section of society had embraced the Muslim Brothers but this initiative did not continue for very long and recently the perception has gained ground that they are steadily pushing the country into very serious social polarization.
Egypt’s opposition seems unwilling to compromise; but the scale of the conflict in the country indicates the existence of a deep problem which cannot be explained away simply by putting all the blame on the opposition.
The Muslim Brothers have taken on the task of governing the country but there are serious signs that they are nearing a point where they will take a separate path even from groups who are close to them. This is reflected in the streets in clashes which move from verbal dueling and intellectual disputes into polarization and the use of arms. The most terrifying scenario now being talked about is that if things continue like this and a descent into chaos becomes inevitable then Egypt will become ungovernable. Egypt in this respect is one of the transitional countries living through the dilemma of pluralism and—- it is not an exceptional case.
Emphasizing Manageable Democracy
Three points emerged from the workshop which should be stressed: (1) There can definitely be no return to the period of dictatorship. (2) The results of the elections have to be accepted as a democratic obligation. (3) Those who won the elections need to act in a conciliatory spirit which takes account of differences and not with a majoritarian one which imposes their wishes.
These three points suggest that the revolution in Egypt has lagged behind the one in Tunisia. Setting things straight in Egypt would require the institutions of a democratic system, working in a synchronized fashion, in order to secure justice and avert chaos. But alas the streets of Egypt do not give good signals.
So, for the time being, the only hopeful case in the ‘Arab Spring’ as it is generally known, is Tunisia. It is to be hoped that the success of Tunisia will be a beam of hope for developments in other Arab countries to be turned away from polarization and internal conflicts towards more manageable democracies.
