Tunis Afrique Presse (Tunis)
Tunis — Countries of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco and Jordan) in which the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) plans to invest one billion Euros still face serious macro-economic difficulties in a climate of increasing uncertainty.
In its last report on “Regional Economic Prospects,” released Wednesday, the EBRD notes that “the economies of these four countries have suffered from the decline of tourism, foreign direct investment and trade exchanges and the wait-and-see attitude of investors at least in the short term.”
It appears that “these countries will experience in 2012 and 2013 a slower growth than the one predicted by the Bank.”
Despite these rather pessimistic forecasts, the EBRD considers that only Tunisia has shown some signs of economic recovery in the first quarter of 2012 compared to other countries of the region.
“With a real GDP growth of 4.8% per year, year on year, the economic recovery of Tunisia seems to affect many sectors, such as tourism and investment with respective increases of 33% and 29%,” said the EBRD.
“However, Tunisia, like Egypt, Jordan and Morocco, continues to face budgetary pressures due to increased social spending and the challenge of employment, particularly of youth.”
For Egypt, “the country suffers from weaknesses, particularly in the areas of transport and manufacturing industries.”
As for Jordan, the EBRD points to the vulnerability of its economy to exogenous shocks and this despite an “astonishing” 3% growth in the first quarter of 2012.
In Morocco, the EBRD is expecting a lower growth in 2012, especially as the real GDP growth was at only 2.8% in the first quarter of 2012.
The EBRD, which invests traditionally to support Central and Eastern European countries and those of the former Soviet Union, has expanded its operations to Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Jordan.
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