High Commission for Planning, the renowned Moroccan institution responsible for statistics revealed that Morocco’s economic growth must stand at 3.3 percent in the first quarter of 2020.
This development, according to High Commission for Planning (HCP), is due to the 2.8 percent increase in the non-agricultural value added, and while noting that overall, growth outside agriculture would be driven by tertiary activities, the pace of which would amount to 3.3 percent, instead of 2.3 percent for the secondary sector.
The agricultural added value should, for its part, increase by 6.8 percent, in annual variation, under the assumption of the return of rainfall favourably distributed over the agricultural regions, in particular during the months of February and March 2020, APA News noted. The current agricultural season should benefit from a technical adjustment of the sown areas, in particular those devoted to cereals, legumes and fodder, but would be characterized by the decline in certain fall crops, such as citrus fruits.
The economic outlook also highlights domestic demand, which is maintaining its upward trend, thanks to household consumption which should progress at a relatively more rapid pace than in the previous quarter, driven by the anticipated improvement in the supply of primary products, in a context of continued moderation in inflationary pressures and a slight increase in household incomes.
In the first quarter of 2020, the international context would be less penalizing for the national economy than in the previous quarter. With fears of global recession fading and easing of trade tensions between China and the United States, world trade should pick up some momentum, but global growth is expected to remain sluggish and move below its long-term trend term.
According to the HCP, world inflation is estimated at 2 percent, taking into account oil price forecasts which will approach 60 dollars per barrel. Under these conditions, global demand addressed to Morocco would benefit from a slight revival in the dynamism of imports from the euro zone and would show an increase of 1.3 percent, year on year.
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