Morocco said it expects its energy-importing economy to grow by between 4.7 and 5.2 percent in 2012, close to the forecast level for 2011, assuming an oil price 33 percent higher than the basis for this year’s budget.
In remarks carried by the official MAP news agency, Finance and Economy Minister Salaheddine Mezouar forecast 2012 inflation of 2 percent, up from 1.4 percent expected for 2011.
The 2012 outlook is based on an average oil price of $100 per barrel versus $75 for the 2011 budget.
The minister did not disclose forecasts for agriculture growth or the grains harvest, key in determining wheat import needs for the kingdom, which heavily subsidises food products and where 40 percent of the workforce works in farming.
The state expects the burden of food and energy subsidies to fall by almost 8 percent to 40 billion dirhams ($5 billion) in 2012 compared to this year, Mezouar said.
The government raised subsidies to 43 billion dirhams from an initially budgeted 17 billion dirhams for 2011 as it sought to avert any spillover from revolts rocking the Arab region.
The push to calm street protests eroded Morocco’s public finances and raised concern over its ability to fund key projects at a time when it is struggling to cope with high oil and grain prices.
The minister did not disclose forecasts for next year’s budget deficit nor did he update the GDP growth forecast for 2011, initially set at 5 percent.
The protests have not sparked revolts as they did in Yemen or Tunisia, partly because the government kept trade unions on its side by agreeing to a multi-billion dollar wage hike in late-April.
Mezouar said the public wage bill is expected to rise to 95 billion dirhams in 2012 as a result of that agreement. He did not give a comparative figure, but the 2011 budget forecast a public wages bill of 86 billion dirhams prior to the agreement. – Reuters
http://www.iol.co.za/business/international/morocco-forecasts-gdp-growth-at-5-1.1116742
