Agrimoney.com
Moroccan wheat imports will tumble this season, but not to the 19-year low forecast by Washington, US officials said, despite taking an upbeat view of the country’s harvest prospects.
The US Department of Agriculture bureau in Rabat forecast wheat imports by Morocco – which last season bought in 4.2m tonnes of the grain making it one of the world’s biggest buyers – tumbling to 2.8m tonnes in 2015-16.
The decline will be felt mostly in buy-ins of soft wheat, which Morocco purchases largely from the European Union, which will fall by some 1m tonnes to 2.3m tonnes.
Imports of durum – the type used in making the likes of flat bread and pasta, and which the country usually buys from Canada – will fall to roughly 500,000 tonnes, from the 577,000 tonnes bought in 2014-15 on a June-to-May basis.
Record harvest
Expectations of a sharp drop in imports are being fuelled by estimates of a strong domestic harvest this year, with the Moroccan government estimating the wheat crop at a record 8.0m tonnes, including 2.4m tonnes of durum.
“The in January eliminated deficits in moisture that developed earlier at the beginning of the growing season, allowing satisfactory crop development in major production areas,” the USDA bureau said.
“Furthermore, indications are that farmers are planting more and more certified seeds along with certified fertilizer which results in higher yields.”
Moroccan vs international prices
Nonetheless, despite assuming an 8.0m-tonne harvest, 200,000 tonnes more than the USDA has officially pegged Morocco’s wheat production at this year, the bureau was more upbeat on imports too.
The USDA officially forecasts Morocco’s wheat imports tumbling by 57% to 1.8m tonnes, a rate of decline not seen since 1968-69. The International Grains Council forecasts a 1.8m-tonne figure too.
While the bureau did not spell out the reasoning behind its higher import estimate, it highlighted a support price of 2,600 dirhams ($263) per tonne – the value at which the government will buy wheat, and one well above the international market rate.
Results due later on Wednesday from an Egyptian wheat tender are expected to show offers from the like of Russia at comfortably below $200 a tonne, excluding shipping.
Temporary tariff
The bureau highlighted that Morocco in May hiked the import duty on imported wheat to 75%, from 17.5%, “to alleviate the impact of international prices on domestic market and to keep the price of common wheat around 2,800 dirhams per tonne”.
However, that raised import tariff will lapse at the end of October. Morocco retains a quota system over imports from the European Union and the US.
The bureau also highlighted the growing trend among millers to use excess capacity to process wheat for export as flour to other African countries.
Imported US wheat “is viewed by many Moroccan millers as an ‘enhancer’ of flour performances, and hence some quality oriented mills have been buying it”.
