Relations between the Arab world and Israel will decline. But not because of Islamist governments targeting Israel. Relations will decline because Arab governments will now be more answerable to their constituencies and in the Arab world there continues to be a pluralistic hostility towards Israel’s consistent infringements on the rights of Palestinians, predicts Suliman Al-Atiqi.
Middle East Online
The post Arab-Spring elections which resulted in ‘Islamists’ winning majority seats in Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, (and eventually in Libya and Yemen) have worried many Western and Israeli observers, particularly in the United States. The general fear is based on the worry that newly elected Islamist majorities will destabilize relations with Israel, and consequently exacerbate Arab-Israeli relations. Though a popular argument in the West, it is premised on a crucial misunderstanding of the reality of Arab opinion toward Israel. Relations between the Arab world and Israel will decline. But not because of Islamist governments targeting Israel. Relations will decline because Arab governments will now be more answerable to their constituencies and in the Arab world there continues to be a pluralistic hostility towards Israel’s consistent infringements on the rights of Palestinians.
Relations between the Arab people and Israel has been the same since the state’s inception-not good. But peace treaties inked with Arab states (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia) and Israel reflect geopolitical realities at the state level. A peace between the autocrats of those regimes and Israel, made for their own interests, was never a peace supported by the people-just ask Anwar Sadat what the Egyptians thought about Camp David.
Under those regimes, Arab opinion had no voice in foreign policy, thus the phony ‘peace’ between the countries-if by countries we mean the heads of state.
Now that some Arab countries are turning towards democracy, popular opinion will no doubt be reflected in foreign policy. Politicians will have to woo their constituencies by capitalizing on popular sentiments in the same way current Republicans in the US presidential race pander to their constituencies by trying to out-pro-Israel each other, and trying to out-anti-Iran each other. When Obama and Clinton were competing in the previous presidential race, they did so no differently than current Republicans with regards to Israel and Iran, because being pro-Israel is not a Republican (conservative) view, or a Democrat (liberal) one, but an American view. The same goes for Arabs in their stance on Israel-not an Islamist or a secular view, but an Arab one.
If western pundits (who subscribe to this assessment) decide to incorporate history in their analysis, they would be able to point out the fallacy of this fear of Islamists by recalling that every war that has ever been fought between Israel and Arab countries (excluding the recent wars against non-state organizations, Hezbollah in 2006, Hamas in 2008) was in fact secular and waged in the name of nationalism, not God. Though this analysis is a reflection of Western paranoia about all things ‘Islam’, it does not reflect the realities on the Arab street. Take Amr Musa for example, a former foreign minister and Arab League secretary general, who is among the most prominent candidates seeking the Egyptian presidential nomination. Though ardently secular, Musa’s outspoken criticism of Israeli policies (and even American double standards in its acquiescence to Israel’s nuclear weapons program) has been the beacon of his popularity.
Thus, it is likely that the newly elected Islamist majorities will lead to a downward spiral with Israel, but not any more than if the elections had yielded a secular majority, for the very same reason-popular sentiments in the Arab street which never really changed towards Israel, will simply matter again. So instead of deflecting the anticipated tensions between Arab States and Israel on the traditional scapegoat, a conservative Islamist trend, pundits should listen to Arab voices (conservative or secular) over Israeli policies in the West Bank and Gaza. And it is an inherent Arab perception (regardless of what one may think of it) perpetuated by powerful occupation images, in a more democratic Arab world, that will fuel this animosity-not a newly elected ‘Islamist’ majority in parliament.
Suliman Al-Atiqi is International Affairs Analyst from Kuwait currently working with the Council on Foreign Relations and a contributor to The Kuwait Times
