Forbes GREEN TECH
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Having spent the last few weeks talking to stakeholders in the effort to turn North Africa into a limitless source of renewable energy, I’ve found the most common question is not ‘If’ but ‘When’. It’s inevitable, one renewable engineer told me from Cairo. With the massive demand potential and endless supply of solar and wind power, it’s a no-brainer. The Arab Spring may have made it easier, noted a World Bank official, but it was always going to happen – given the space, resources and flourishing embrace of sustainability goals and green development, it would be hard to stop it.
The energy, potential and political will all seem to be there but still, there’s no denying, ‘When?’ is still a pretty big question.
The answer appears to lie not in a lack of enthusiasm or vision, but in the ability for energy and political actors on all sides of the discussion to deal with the technical limitations and how to pay for it. Its one thing to build out the production side of things but finding a reliable way to transport the energy to those who can use and pay for it is another issue all together. Indeed, the long-term vision of efforts like Desertec, a multifaceted initiative that lays out a decades long program for solar and wind development in MENA states, paint a very positive picture. However, to get there, developers first have to deal challenges like insufficient grid capacity and connectivity on both sides of the Mediterranean – a task made all the more difficult by economic shortfalls and an unclear political picture in capitals like Tunis and Tripoli.
In Europe, this has already led electricity officials to warn of a slowdown of renewable integration “or risk power cuts and systems instability because of the slow pace of cross-border grid improvements.” In North Africa, this means starting from scratch in many cases, requiring new investment and lots of it.
For those active in the region’s renewable development, this isn’t a daunting task as long as you focus on the long-term rewards, widening the scope to how North Africa will function in a few decades, not next year. Its such a long term process that today’s political and economic issues will not be that concerning, suggested Paul van Son, the CEO of the Desertec Industrial Initiative (DII), preferring instead to focus on the potential for North Africa reach full energy supply in 40 years time. (DII is a private industry consortium charged with supporting market development and renewable investment in the region.)
However, for investors in Europe and the US, looking beyond next year is still a little difficult, especially given political uncertainties in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. While the politically dominant Muslim Brotherhood may very well include a section in their official platform stressing the benefits of solar power, Egypt’s new political path has some on edge about new project funding. The commercial director of one solar solutions firm whose company had opened their doors in Cairo not long ago said for now, “We’ve pushed pause.”
One thing all sides of the discussion can agree on is the need for some short-term success to help reach longer-term goals, laying some groundwork where it’s needed most. Allowing that the region was not yet an easy environment for foreign investors, Van Son added that one of DII’s roles is to provide “clear, tangible projects and progress” in order to move forward, pointing to projects in Morocco and Tunisia with the potential to do just that. The ideal, a World Bank official suggested, would be if they could confirm one purchasing agreement for renewable energy between a country like Morocco and Germany – that would lay the groundwork for the years of work ahead.
Christopher Coats, Contributor
I write about energy and policy issues facing the Mediterranean region
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