DroVers Cattle Network
USDA
Beginning 2011/12 wheat stocks added another 0.8 million tons to supplies this month. The Kazakhstan wheat consumption and stocks’ series for several years was revised, with an extra 0.6 million tons of wheat going into the country’s 2011/12 beginning stocks.
A higher estimate for Chilean 2010/11 wheat imports boosted Chile’s 2011/12 beginning stocks by 0.1 million tons. A very small adjustment of wheat beginning stocks is also made for Canada. Projected global 2011/12 wheat consumption is down 1.0 million tons to 680.5 million. Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use is down 1.1 million tons this month. The largest change is for India, down 1.6 million tons to 82.9 million, reflecting a lackluster pace of domestic demand for wheat in one of the world’s largest wheat-consuming countries. India’s projected consumption is still up 1.2 million tons on the year, but not enough to maintain stable per capita consumption of wheat.
In a country that ranks 67th out of 122 developing countries, according to the Global Hunger Index, and where an estimated 20 percent of its 1.2 billion population is undernourished, the Government is trying to strengthen the safety net for the poor and increase per capita consumption. These interventions have so far proved both inefficient and ineffective, and a new food security bill is currently under consideration that could increase, or at least maintain, per capita consumption for staple foods in India.
Partly offsetting are several small upward adjustments for FSI use in Australia, Chile, Ethiopia, and Kazakhstan, up 0.1 million tons each. World feed and residual consumption is raised slightly this month, up 0.1 million tons to 130.7 million. Feed and residual, however, is up sharply on the year increasing 18.2 million tons from 2010/11.
For 2011/12 this month, a 1.0-million-ton reduction in Kazakh wheat feed and residual use (a result of already mentioned revision of the series for wheat consumption and stocks for the last 3 years) is more than offset by increased feed consumption in several countries. In Ukraine, where poultry production is showing robust growth on the year, feed consumption is projected up 0.4 million tons to 4.6 million. Feed wheat consumption is also up in Saudi Arabia by 0.3 million tons to 0.35 million because of an unusual increase in feed-quality wheat imports mainly from Ukraine.
Feed consumption is up 0.2 million tons inboth Canada and in Mexico. Canada has an abundance of low quality wheat that faces tough competition in world markets from the EU, Russia, and Ukraine. Reduced export prospects and lower domestic wheat prices make feeding more attractive, and as a result, more low quality wheat is projected to be used domestically as feed, causing an increase of 5 percent. In Mexico, higher imports of competitively priced soft red winter and white wheat from the U.S. are attractive partly because of tight supplies of U.S. sorghum.
World wheat ending stocks are projected up 3.1 million tons to 213.1 million this month, beating a historical record of 1999/00 by 2.4 million tons. Stocks are up because of an increase in global wheat production and a drop in consumption. The largest increases occur in India and Kazakhstan, up 2.9 and 1.8 million tons, respectively. In both countries, a combination of increased supplies and lower-than-expected wheat consumption (and also lower exports by India) resulted in a rise in the countries’ stocks. Stocks are also up 0.6 million tons in Ukraine following lower projected exports that are partly offset by increased feeding. In Canada, Chile, and Morocco, stocks are up for a total of 0.6 million tons as a result of trade (Canada and Chile) and production (Morocco) changes.
Reduced stocks are projected this month for Russia (down 1.0 million tons), Argentina (down 0.5 million tons), Brazil (down 0.5 million tons), and United States (0.7 million tons), due to higher projected exports. Australian stocks are reduced slightly due to increased food and industrial consumption.
Source: Wheat Outlook
