The Idaho Statesman
Spokane native Ryan Crocker, left, talks to Richard Slaughter, center, and Dr. Bill Jones before addressing the Boise Committee on Foreign Relations at the Red Lion Downtowner.
Darin Oswald — doswald@idahostatesman.com
By DAN POPKEY — dpopkey@idahostatesman.com
Spokane native Ryan Crocker, who has been called “the premier U.S. diplomat of his generation” will be part of Tuesday’s conference, “Afghanistan After America,” sponsored by the Frank Church Institute.
Crocker, 63, served 38 years in the Foreign Service, retiring in July after a year as ambassador to Afghanistan. He also was ambassador to Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Kuwait and Lebanon. Three of his immediate predecessors were assassinated.
His keynote talk will be in the Student Union Simplot Ballroom at Boise State.
Crocker is teaching this year at Yale as the inaugural Kissinger senior fellow. He plans to return to his post as dean of the George Bush School of Government at Texas A&M next year.
Crocker spoke with the Statesman on Monday before his appearances at the College of Idaho and the Boise Committee on Foreign Relations.
Q: You saw the bombing of Marine barracks in Beirut, massive casualties in Iraq, continuing conflict in Afghanistan. What do you say to those who see the Arab world as a billion fanatics intent on destroying America?
A: “That they don’t understand the Arab world in its immense sweep of diversity and they don’t understand its history, either. The overwhelming majority of Arabs want the same things we want. They want a good life, particularly for their children. They’re like us.”
Where they differ is history. From Morocco in the west to the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq in the east, “These highly diverse countries have one thing in common. They have all been occupied by Western armies at least once. So when we see ourselves as liberators overthrowing despots so democracy can flourish, that’s not how they see it. ‘Here come the Brits again, the Russians, the Italians.’ And on it goes.”
That brings an “inborn, inherent resentment that can be radicalized to the point of violence. You have to understand that history, and we don’t. For Arabs, the Crusades (11th to 13th centuries) were the day before yesterday. We don’t even remember what they were about.”
A history of occupation has impeded development of effective governments, which “gives running room” to extremists.
Q: Should the U.S. be doing more to arm rebels in Syria?
A: “We need to proceed with great care,” in consultation with neighbors most directly affected and knowledgeable, such as Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. “Let’s not do our customary thing and decide, ‘Let us figure it out. We’re the Americans.’ ”
The legacy of the 1982 destruction of Hama, ordered by the father of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to kill members of the Muslim Brotherhood, lingers. Syria’s Sunni Muslims have an “undying desire for vengeance” against the ruling Aliwites.
“So guns to rebels? Be darn sure you know who those rebels are, what their agenda is, what their likelihood of success is, and what they will do with that success. Or you may be arming the next al-Qaida.”
Q: Should the U.S. look the other way while Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities?
A: Maintaining and strengthening international consensus and tightening sanctions remains the best option, because Iran is one of the more democratic states in the region, where “peoples’ voices count,” Crocker says. Continuing covert computer virus attacks also is worthwhile.
Iran is prepared for an attack, having learned from the Israeli bombing of Iraq in 1981. “Whatever they are doing, they are doing it at a level of complexity and redundancy and survivability that in their view will ensure they still have the essence of that program. … The main problem with the attack option is it’s not likely to work.”
Q: Talk about the evolution of the Arab Spring, from the enthusiasm of 2010 to last month’s assassination of your friend, Ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens.
A: Republican regimes that took power in the 1950s turned out to be as undemocratic and repressive, or worse, than the monarchies they overthrew. Since 2010, the republics have fallen in Libya, Egypt and Tunisia and are danger in Syria and Yemen.
The monarchies — Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait — have been relatively stable because their rulers work hard to knit their kingdoms together. They will survive, but the republics are unpredictable.
“We thought the Arab Spring was over and we had entered into a sun-dappled upland of democracy and prosperity when CNN and Fox News turned off the lights in Tahrir Square (in Cairo.) Today, almost two years into this, this is Act 1, Scene 1 of the Arab Spring. … God knows what’s going to happen, except a lot will. This year, next year, the year after.”
Q: Did the Obama administration fail in its duty to protect Ambassador Stevens?
A: “We’ve got to go where it’s dangerous. Our largest embassies are Kabul and Baghdad, not London and Paris.”
That said, “The administration couldn’t have screwed up the telling of the incident more horribly if they’d subcontracted it to the opposing party. But it doesn’t change the basic facts. Chris Stevens knew the risks. … You just can’t have 120 armed guys around you and do your work.”
Al-Qaida targeted Stevens. “When he showed up, they pulled the trigger. It’s pretty hard to defend against that kind of thing; I would say almost impossible. And if you try to defend against it, then you render yourself ineffective because you don’t go anywhere and they win.”
Q: What are the prospects for success in Afghanistan after the U.S. goes in December 2014?
A: “I stay away from words like ‘optimism’ and ‘pessimism,’ but when I opened our embassy (in Kabul in 2002) after the fall of the Taliban, there were 900,000 kids in school, all boys. Today, it’s 8.5 million kids in school, 40 percent of them are girls. Universities are thriving with a high percentage of female students.”
They have come of age in the post-Taliban era, with a level of unprecedented freedom, access to the Internet, and dozens of newspapers, TV and radio stations that attack the government regularly.
“You’ve got a whole generation who fundamentally look at their country and the world different than any previous Afghan generation. They are, ultimately, the instrument of change, and are pretty well determined to do it. And I think they can do it, if a modicum of security and stability is present.”
Q: Who should be most nervous about your memoir?
A: “Actually, no one should be nervous. The last book I’d write would be one of those Washington gotcha books. I’ve been in this business too long not to know how hard it is to make and implement policy.”
Dan Popkey: 377-6438, Twitter: @IDS_politics
Post as …
JL99
Today 02:46 PM
“People’s response to political parties and political candidates may be polarized, but they are not polarized in terms of their preferences for public policy…” so says U of Texas Political Science Prof Daron Shaw. He and a couple of other professors did the research and wrote about book about the subject titled “Unconventional Wisdom: Facts and Myths About American Voters” (Oxford University Press, 2008).
That means the idea that we are a highly polarized electorate is an urban myth popularized by pundits and the media because they have not done the research. Once again the media lied to us.
The bottm line is that it depends on who is asking the questions and just how the questions are framed. We reject party affilaition more today than even we did in 2000, 2004 and 2008. So voter turnout calculations from 2008, which are used to guage poll accuracy, are essentially meaningless this time around. The polls that count are the ones party’s pay millions for, not the nonsense chicken feed priced polls used in the popular press and on TV.
We Americans do not want to be part of a failure especially when we have invested so heavily in lives and treasure. But by the same token when is enough? Crocker seems to have a pretty good feel for what things are like. When he gives us the benefit of his views, that helps. It also re-inforces my belief that the American news media is next to useless – and they are getting worse.
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Brahma
Today 01:39 PM
Without a very strong military and police presence in Afghanistan after the U.S. and its allies leave… I predict the Taliban will be back in power within about two years.
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John_Smith
Today 01:42 PM
I think the Taliban are too busy pretending to be Idaho Legislators to worry about Afghanistan.
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John_Smith
Today 01:39 PM
America could be a success story if we weren’t spending all of our national wealth fighting on multiple fronts for oil.
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AlphaFactor
Today 11:49 AM
Afghanistan will never be a success as long at the Afghanistan Mafia and drug cartels are running practically the whole country and their military as well. If the Afghan citizens can ever stand up for themselves and clean the mess up internally, then I would say at that point, maybe it could be successful. The U.S. at the point where we cannot do much more militarily, and should be leaving sooner rather than later.
(Edited by author 4 hours ago)
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Jeff L. Wright
Today 12:06 PM
Of course, you realize that it was the Americans and CIA that put the drug cartels in business in the 1980s when we began funding the Mujahideen and Usama bin Laden. They used the profits from the Poppy crop and heroin trade to fund their operations against the Soviets and to help get the Soviet troops addicted. We put them back in business when we invaded Afghanistan in 2001. They wouldn’t have the mess to clean up if we didn’t make the mess to begin with.
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AlphaFactor
Today 12:17 PM
All that matters at this point is that we need to stop meddling over there, and leave.
(Edited by author 4 hours ago)
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Jeff L. Wright
Today 12:25 PM
We agree. We need to stop meddling and our government, except for a protected Indirect Mission, needs to get out throughout the Middle East and Central Asia. If the Missions can’t be protected then leave entirely. If American companies want to engage there in trade and commerce that private companies and private citizens wish to engage in at their own peril, then, have at it. We should never set up a full Embassy until we have a freely-negotiated, bilateral trade and security agreement, or an alliance.
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Jeff L. Wright
Today 11:16 AM
Funny how Mr. Crocker answered not a single question directly. I would ask the questions differently, in comparable terms, of him and others here. For example, against today’s US population, to be comparable we would have sacrificed 7.5 million soldiers and citizens to end slavery, about 1 million during World War II. Would it have been worth it now or would we have found other ways? Who out there is ready to sacrifice that many of yourselves or that many fellow citizens for something YOU believe in? I also note these discussions never include the 600,000-800,000 Iraqis and Afghans that died due to our invasions, more than 95% of them civilians. What, do those people, “not count?” My next question would be how many respondents have served or will serve in the military themselves? And how many “right to life” hawks are there that bleat the “sanctity of life” only don’t seem to apply it 18-20 year olds from the US or innocent “collateral damage” from our wars? I doubt JL99 has any real idea of what the Libertarian worldview is or that it is the same non-interventionist worldview of the Founders and most Americans until the 20th Century. Another knee-jerk response of a NeoCon
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ConservativeRedneck
Today 11:42 AM
The left will do ANYTHING to make America look like the bad guys. No surprise there,
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