Elections in Tunisia, a deal with Morocco on agricultural trade and, now, a taskforce set for Jordan to offer what one senior European Union diplomat promises will be “substantially increased” support for Amman’s economic and political reforms.
Signs are growing that Europe’s engagement with post-Arab Spring North Africa may be bringing it influence.
It has been a struggle. Early European rapture at the movements that swept aside Middle Eastern dictatorships turned to concern amid renewed bloodshed in the streets of Cairo and despair in the face of growing brutality in Syria.
Meanwhile, the cogs of policy change turned slowly in Brussels. With its own economic crisis ravaging EU member states’ budgets, the admirable principle of “more for more”–more assistance for more democratic changes–yielded little immediate result.
Old concerns of southern EU nations about their farmers, and delays in the European Parliament meant that tangible trade deals barely emerged. Yet the persistent–often low-profile–visits by European officials and contacts with their North African counterparts have shown signs of paying off in recent weeks.
Early February, Tunisia’s newly elected Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali chose Brussels as his first official foreign trip and was welcomed here as a democratic vanguard. The two sides launched intensified talks on trade, travel and visas.
Mr. Jebali urged Europe to convert moral support into real assistance but stressed the “great importance of this alliance with Europe.”
Meanwhile, Morocco’s monarchy has pushed various democratic reforms, writing a new constitution and inviting a moderate Islamist party to lead the government. Europe reacted: Last Wednesday, the European parliament finally approved a trade deal, which slashes tariffs on more than half of Moroccan agricultural exports to the EU.
And despite the angst and frustration over Syria, Brussels has worked with the Arab League there–leaving Syria’s President Bashar-al Assad’s regime increasingly shunned by its neighbors.
Rarely at the steering wheel, Europe has appeared nonetheless to have helped shape events.
The newest challenge is Jordan, where EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton will lead a task-force next week.
Bernadino Leon, Brussels’ special envoy to the region, told reporters Friday that Jordan faces an “especially complex” situation–surrounded by instability on all sides–Syria, Iraq, Egypt.
The Jordanian leadership has pledged political reform and elections but such promises have come and gone before.
This time he thinks the realization that the status quo is unacceptable means the result will be different. In the 1990s and again in 2007, they “talked about reforms. Now is the moment for delivery,” Mr. Leon said.
Europe is poised to help. The EU is expected to announce an increase in direct assistance next week, while the European Investment Bank will significantly step up lending, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development will start work.
The priority: jobs, especially for the hundreds of thousands of younger Jordanians locked out of employment.
European experts will also offer technical assistance on reforming the public administration, the constitution, the justice system and the economy.
Sure, intentions are not results. The big test of Europe’s new relationships will come after Egyptian elections and a new–probably Islamist-led government–takes office alongside a restless, barely reformed military. Disputes over migration, visa and security issues will likely continue to fester. Syria and Libya remain huge challenges.
Yet, EU policymakers argue they cannot stand aside and let events take their course. “We have to be part of this change… we have a responsibility,” M. Leon said.
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