Middle East Online
By Saad Guerraoui – LONDON
‘The new government does not have a magic wand to fulfill its promises in such a short time’
The Islamist-led Moroccan government cannot deliver overnight because it does not a magic wand, stressed Dr. Ali Bahaijoub, editor of the North South Magazine.
The February 20 Movement has played an important role last year in triggering major reforms in Morocco, Bahaijoub told Middle East Online in an exclusive interview.
As Tunisia and Egypt were hit by the Arab Spring and saw their leaders ousted, King Mohammed VI, who in 1999 took over the Arab world’s longest-serving dynasty, offered reforms that curbed his powers after the youth-based February 20 Movement organised weeks of protests that brought thousands to the streets to call for more democracy, better economic prospects and an end to corruption.
The July referendum was overwhelmingly adopted and the Party of Justice and Development (PJD) became the first Islamist party to run government in the Arab world’s oldest monarchy after winning the most seats in the November 25 election.
Bahaijoub, who is also writer and publisher, said that the PJD-led government is doing very well and should be given time to deliver on its promises.
“The new government does not have a magic wand to fulfill its promises in such a short time. Curbing unemployment and achieving a strong growth will take time especially in this current global economic climate,” he said.
Last February, Morocco’s finance minister predicted that the North African kingdom’s economic growth rate for 2012 would fall to 4.2 percent because of the economic crisis in Europe.
Morocco has had an average growth rate for the past five years of around 4.8 percent, though it is believed to have dropped slightly during 2011.
Bahaijoub, author of “Western Saharan Conflict: Historical, Regional and International Dimensions”, said the government’s pledge to employ all postgraduate students is the first step towards lowering unemployment which is officially at 9.1 percent, but more than 30 percent among those under 34 years.
However, Bahaijoub stressed that Morocco is witnessing a rather unusual trend among unemployed graduates.
“Everybody wants to work in the public sector. This mentality has to change because the private sector has a lot to offer. The government cannot always hire all university graduates while the private sector has the means to absorb them,” he told Middle East Online.
“The government is now forking out funds to support new entrepreneurs in various sectors,” he noted.
Drought in Morocco
Drought and an unusually long cold spell in the first two months of this year have taken their toll on Morocco’s cereal cultivation, which will force the North African kingdom to import more cereals.
Agricultural exports, which represent 14% of Morocco’s output, saw a dramatic fall in February due to rain shortage this year.
“Morocco is not the only country in the world to suffer from drought. The Sahel region has been affected by a severe drought which is threatening millions of lives. Great Britain has been also hit by drought,” he said, adding that the world’s climate was drastically changing and unpredictable.
According to the finance ministry’s report on the progress of the farming season earlier this month, rainfall from September to mid-January was 27 percent below a normal year.
EU crisis
Bahaijoub noted that Morocco’s economy mainly depends on the European Union especially in agricultural exports and tourism revenues.
Around 60 percent of Moroccan exports go to the EU, which also provides over 80 percent of Morocco’s foreign tourists.
The EU is bearing the brunt of the global economic crisis as European countries are struggling to fix the mammoth debt disaster that threatens a region-wide recession this year.
EU imports of Moroccan goods grew 7.8 percent in 2011compared to 19.8 percent growth in 2010.
“The Moroccan economy has been affected by the aftershocks of the 2008 global financial meltdown. Less and less Europeans are travelling these days because of the job uncertainty,” said Bahaijoub.
“Most of the European tourists book their holidays in the last minute because they simply cannot predict if they can keep their job in the current gloomy headlines about the job market.
“Hence, Morocco’s job market and GDP have been affected,” he said.
400,000 direct jobs depend on tourism which represents 10 percent of Morocco’s Gross Domestic Product.
There are also 2.5 million Moroccan migrants who live and work in Europe and on whom depend hundreds of thousands of relatives in the kingdom. A growing economic crisis in the EU will have adverse consequences on Moroccan migrants and will consequently affect the country’s balance of payments.
Radical Islamism in the region
Bahaijoub said that Morocco is immune from the radical Islamist currents that emerged in Tunisia and Egypt in the Arab Spring.
He pointed out that Morocco has had a history of movements culminating in PJD ruling the country a moderate Islamist party.
“The Islamist movement cannot defy today the legitimacy of the monarchy because King Mohammed VI is the Commander of the Faithful and his religious status transcends all the religious currents in the country,” he told Middle East Online.
“Radical Islamists in Morocco are a very tiny minority because the majority of Moroccans reject their ideologies.
Morocco Algeria borders
There are signs that the Moroccan-Algerian ties will improve after Morocco’s new Foreign Minister Saad Eddine Othmani was last January on a fence-mending visit to Algeria to resolve disputes such as the neighbours’ longstanding differences over Western Sahara, according to Bahaijoub.
“The stumbling block between Algeria and Morocco has always been the Western Sahara conflict which has prevented the two countries from establishing normal ties since Madrid Accords signed in November 14, 1975,” said Bahaijoub.
Spain, Morocco, and Mauritania signed Madrid Accords to end the Spanish presence in the territory of Spanish Sahara, which was a Spanish province and former colony. The treaty was signed in Madrid on November 14, 1975 and declared that the territory would then be divided between Morocco and Mauritania.
“The closure of the borders is not in the interest of both countries because it has had repercussions on their economy and the social ties between relatives living on both sides of the borders,” Bahaijoub said, adding that historic ties cannot be ignored.
“Recent times show that there might be an overture towards putting the Western Sahara problem aside and engage in normal ties between Morocco and Algeria,” he went on.
Influence of private English-speaking higher education in Morocco
Morocco has witnessed the advent of many private English-speaking universities in the last 20 years such as Al Akhawayn University in Ifrane and the University of Sunderland in Casablanca in order to meet the needs of an increasingly demanding job market due to Morocco’s overture to the world and closer trade ties with the Great Britain and the US.
“Globalisation and the dominance of the Anglo-Saxon world made Morocco realise it is time to embrace Anglo-Saxon culture,” said Bahaijoub.
However, only the upper middle class and the wealthy can afford to go to such universities.
Dr. Saad Guerraoui is senior editor at Middle East Online
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