Predictions about the formation of states built on sectarian religious identities also ignore the tug of ethnic and nationalist identities that may form a solider foundation for political community. A tilt towards these types of secular identities could be reinforced by the geopolitics of the region. If Syria, Lebanon and Iraq do start to splinter on sectarian lines, the threat of possible exploitation by Iran and Turkey could be a stimulant for some kind of revived Arab nationalism. As we saw with Egypt and Iran, identity shifts can occur in response to the need to generate power. The rise of non-Arab Iran and Turkey as regional powers, juxtaposed with the weakening of states like Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, might just be that imperative. The specter of this could be the jolt required to push sectarian identities once again beneath the surface in favor of a more powerful, unifying nationalist identity.
So the outlook for political Islam in the region is likely to be mixed. Paradoxically, in Egypt where the Muslim Brotherhood is being brutally suppressed, the prospects for an eventual role for Islamists are reasonably strong. The only question is whether that will be played from the underground opposition or as part of a new government. The Egyptian military will hopefully pull back from the brink before it is too late, keeping in mind that the challenges from the Brotherhood revolve around issues of legitimate governance and leadership, not Egypt’s national identity. This is in stark contrast to Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, where current battles are being fought for national identity.
Washington lacks the leverage to stem any of these conflicts. But if its goals are stabilization of Egypt and prevention of further advances by Islamic elements in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, then it must take care not to unwittingly sully the credentials of secular-nationalist elites in these countries. For this reason, despite the political pressure in Washington for more muscular responses to the situations in Syria and Egypt, at this point the Obama administration is correct in its decision to tread lightly.
Ross Harrison is on the faculty of the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, where he teaches graduate-level courses in strategy. He also teaches Middle East politics at the University of Pittsburgh, and is the author of Strategic Thinking in 3D: A Guide for National Security, Foreign Policy and Business Professionals (Potomac Books: 2013).
