London – Oxford Business Group (OBG), the global publishing, research and consultancy firm, said that robust non-agricultural growth in the first half of the year, combined with a bumper harvest, has improved Morocco’s growth outlook for 2011.
The group said that inflation remains low, despite having risen above expectations, underlining that the Moroccan government is undertaking a number of measures to rein the fiscal deficit in, whose increase is causing some concerns.
Recalling that Morocco had experienced robust non-agricultural GDP growth of 5.1% in the first six months of 2011, OBG said the agricultural sector also looks set to support overall expansion thanks to a strong 2010-11 harvest.
Industrial sector is also performing well as output grew by 2.6% in the first quarter of the year over the same period in 2011.
Based on a survey of industrial firms by the central bank, Bank Al Maghrib, OBG said 43% of firms surveyed reporting an increase in production versus just 26% who saw a fall in output.
Exports for the year to the end of July rose by 19.5% year-on-year, to 99.5 billion dirhams, driven by increased sales abroad in the mining, metal and chemical industries, although they were slightly outpaced by imports, which rose by 20.2% to 206 billion dirhams.
The same source added taking into account the economy’s strong performance in the first half of the year, Bank Al Maghrib have raised its growth forecast range for 2011 by half a percentage point, from 4.5-5% to 5-5.5%.
Morocco’s statistical body, the High Planning Commission (Haut Commissariat du Plan), also increased its conservative estimate, from 4.6% to 4.8%, said OBG, making the prospects for 2012 appear equally encouraging.
