NIGERIA’S bid for the non-permanent seat on the United Nations (UN) Security Council would be formally presented to the African Union (AU) Assembly of heads of state and government this week in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
The continental body’s 21st Ordinary Session is coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the Organisation of African Unity and African Union (AU), which carries a special theme: Pan Africanism and African Renaissance.
But even as the country ordinarily looks poised to sit at the elite Security Council chamber, there are hurdles –identified by diplomatic watchers including a university don, Professor Abdulhameed Ujo – which the country must surmount in order to have a successful outing on the continental stage in this regard.
These include among others, the power shift sentiment, Francophone alliance as well as the intensified lobbying activities of groups within and outside the continent whose interests are better served if Nigeria does not get one of the two proposed slots to represent Africa in a non-permanent capacity at the UNSC.
Going by the UN’s internal administrative arrangement, five of the 15 members of the UNSC are elected each year. Africa has three members. The two-year term of Morocco and Togo ends in December this year. Rwanda was elected last year and its term will expire on December 31, 2014. The two vacant positions are those currently being occupied by Morocco and Togo. Nigeria wants one of the seats and is seeking the endorsement of the 54-member AU.
The Guardian has learnt that Nigeria is also fielding candidates for the two elections coming up before the Executive Council during the summit. These are the AU Commission on Human and Peoples Rights (AUCHPR) and the African Committee of Experts on the Rights and Welfare of the Child (ACERWC) Just as the country has received the endorsement of the AU for the election of her candidate to the presidency of the Executive Council of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) which is coming up later in the year in Montreal, Canada.
A significant factor that would count in Nigeria’s favour for the UNSC seat, is the support already declared for its bid by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) as well as the African Group at the UN in New York.
But according to the Dean, Faculty of Social Science and International Relations of the University of Abuja, Ujo, there are booby traps staring while continental politics have become very complex. The continent is divided into five geopolitical regions – North, South, East, West and Central.
Speaking to The Guardian on the issue at the weekend, he said “On paper; it looks like an easy ride for Nigeria. In practice, it is not so easy in the dangerous and unpredictable waters of African politics. Certain factors are likely to work in favour of Nigeria. Togo, which is concluding its tenure, is from the same zone with Nigeria. Those who are against Nigeria may exploit the situation to argue for ‘power shift’”.
He continued: “From past experience in African politics, the Francophone countries which are more in number usually nominate and vote for their candidates. If the principle of fair-play is to be adopted, some zones are technically disqualified. In West Africa, a Ghanaian, Alhaji Muhammad Mumuni, is the Secretary General of ACP. No North African candidate is likely to surface, with Morocco’s concluding its term in office. South Region with Nkosazanna Dlamimi-Zuma from South Africa as the leader of AU will obviously not be in any contention.”
Even after the AU nomination is secured, the final battle will be fought at the UN General Assembly where the requirement for winning the election is the majority votes.
Ujo argues further in this regard: “To obtain a seat on the council, a country must receive votes from two-thirds of the member states present and voting at the General Assembly. Winning at this stage will depend on the support from the permanent members – USA, UK, Russia, France and China, human right record and the quality of the candidate.
“Nigeria has a friendly relation with all the permanent members both at the diplomatic and economic bilateral relations. But the recent observation by the USA on the human right condition and the level of corruption will not influence its support for Nigeria.”
He added: “Yes, other members will consider the sacrifices made by Nigeria to the UNO’s (United Nations Organisation) programmes of international peace and security. It is not only up to date in its financial obligation but its policemen and soldiers are involved in peacekeeping operation under the auspice of the UNO….As I have always said, Professor Joy Ogwu who is currently the Permanent Representative at the UN has all the credentials that are necessary to represent Africa… The decision to contest for the seat in the Security Council is a welcome development. It should be the first step to the much-awaited permanent membership.”
But the seasoned university don warned at the weekend: “Needless to state that other countries are warming up to contest. Nigeria should not underrate them. The lobbying organisations both on the continent and all the UNO should intensify their activities. Every instrument of foreign policy should be mobilised. All things, being equal Nigeria is likely to win one of the two seats”
Raising hopes of Nigeria’s ability to shoot into the bull’s eye in this regard earlier in the week, Foreign Affairs Minister, Ambassador Olugbenga Ashiru, said: “At this forthcoming summit, we are focused on all it takes to get the Security Council seat. We will also be underscoring our commitment to democracy, peace, security and stability of the continent, including greater unity and solidarity of Africa”
He disclosed that Nigeria is now looking forward to “repositioning the AU for greater effectiveness and efficiency as a credible regional organization that gives collective voice to Africa. Specifically, Nigeria’s bid for the non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council would be formally presented to the AU”
As far back as 2005, Nigeria drew from the primordial wisdom of “half a loaf, better than none” when it decided to jettison Africa’s the earlier demand for two permanent seats with the veto power and five non- permanent seats in the envisaged expansion of the United Nation’s (UN) security council.
